Weaknesses in monitoring, forecasting exposed during N China’s worst flood: Ministry of Water Resources

The worst flood that hit the Haihe River Basin in North China since 1963 has exposed  weaknesses in monitoring and forecasting capabilities for floods, said China's Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) on Monday.

From July 28 to August 1, some 22 rivers in the basin experienced above-warning level flooding, and eight rivers reported the largest floods ever recorded, said MWR officials at a news conference. The disaster has caused 61 deaths, and millions of people were impacted. 

At present, the water levels in active flood storage and retention areas within the basin are gradually retreating and residents are gradually returning home, officials said.

Liu Weiping, a vice minister of the MWR, said reservoirs in the region have played a key role. Eighty-four large and medium-sized reservoirs were mobilized to intercept 2.85 billion cubic meters of floodwater, while the comprehensive role of the basin's flood control system was fully utilized to minimize the impact and losses caused by the floods.

These reservoirs have prevented 500,000 hectares of farmland in 24 townships from being flooded, said Liu. More than 4.6 million people would have been evacuated if not for the reservoirs.

Although the flood control system has played an important role in combating this flooding in the Haihe River Basin, which is the major water system with an area of about 320,600 square kilometers in North China,  many loopholes have been exposed, said MWR officials. 

The nation is still relatively weak in terms of monitoring and forecasting floods, said Zhang Xiangwei, an official from the Department of Planning and Programming of the MWR.

Weaknesses include insufficient flood storage capacity in some the rivers, insufficient flood capacity to meet requirements, lagging behind in the construction of stagnant flood storage areas and inadequate flood entry and exit facilities, Zhang said.

These weaknesses are particularly evident in the forecast of small river floods, which needs to be further improved both in meteorological and hydrological terms, Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, told the Global Times on Monday.

Ma noted that the disruption of the network has led to transmission interruptions at some monitoring stations, which had a great impact on accurately predicting the trend of floods.

Given these weaknesses, Zhang said that the MWR will further strengthen the integrated management of the Haihe River Basin in collaboration with relevant departments and local authorities.

Ma called for a reassessment of the risk of meteorological disasters such as torrential rain and flash floods in the context of climate change, as well as corresponding urban planning.

In response to the floods in the Haihe River Basin, the MWR has strengthened technical guidance and provided support for post-disaster reconstruction. A total of 26 working groups and expert teams have been dispatched to provide targeted guidance of flood prevention and risk management efforts.

Moreover, China's Ministry of Finance has allocated 1.15 billion yuan ($157.35 million) to support the timely repair of water conservancy facilities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. 

Additionally, 1.5 billion yuan for compensation in flood storage and detention areas has been allocated to support the affected areas and people in quickly restoring production and their livelihoods, said Liu.

According to media reports, the post-disaster reconstruction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is being carried out in an orderly manner. Beijing's Mentougou district is accelerating cleaning of the Yongding River to ensure subsequent rainfall flood flow is at safe levels, said Zhang Hewei, an official from the Mentougou district government.

A total of 16 teams from institutes of city planning and design have been sent to the Mentougou district to analyze the occurrence of geological disasters and the situation in terms of risk prevention and control. 

Some 15,000 grassroots officials and agricultural technicians in Hebei have been organized to assist farmers in post-disaster production recovery, as well as 12 robotic vehicles in the city of Zhuozhou have been deployed for underground garage dredging, according to media reports.

Noting that the flood season is still ongoing, with severe and complicated floods and droughts still expected, Liu said the ministry will continue to strengthen all prevention measures.

China’s security ministry lashes out against US Intelligence Strategy by exposing four US dangerous modes of thinking

China’s security ministry lashed out against a new US Intelligence Strategy on Monday by exposing four dangerous, ill-suited and parasitic modes of thinking emerging from the US intelligence community – Cold War mentality of targeting China, zero-sum thinking, hegemonic thinking and confrontational thinking. 

The Ministry of State Security (MSS) said in a statement that the policy orientation set by the US National Intelligence Strategy is aimed at deterring China and is merely a new iteration of the “China threat theory,” also a clear declaration of the US intelligence community to open an era of “targeting China.”  

The new US National Intelligence Strategy, unveiled on August 10, aims to better prepare the US for a range of threats that are no longer limited to traditional nation-state competitors such as China and Russia or terrorist groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, VOA reported.

China’s security ministry in the statement advised the US intelligence community to take a sober approach toward the present-day China and the international landscape. Immersing itself in backward and misguided notions will only result in self-inflicted harm and undermine its own interests, the ministry warned. 

The MSS firstly revealed the Cold War mentality behind the US National Intelligence Strategy, saying though it has been over 30 years since the Cold War has been ended , some individuals in the US intelligence community have only adapted to the new multipolar world physically, while their mindset remains stuck in the bipolar confrontation of the Cold War era. 

They have been constantly searching for a “perfect adversary” to showcase their skills, treating China as a “toolbox” to leverage their own value domestically and as a scapegoat for disguising security challenges internationally. 

From establishing the “China Mission Center” to advocating for the reconstruction of intelligence networks in China, from launching “witch-hunt operations” against Chinese scholars to pressuring countries to “decouple” from China, the US intelligence agencies have skillfully employed strategies from the Cold War era, erecting a new “Iron Curtain” to hinder global prosperity and development, the ministry wrote in a statement. 

The ministry pointed out that the zero-sum thinking over “absolute security” is apparent in its National Intelligence Strategy, which lists numerous new security threats but fails to propose effective strategies for deepening international security cooperation. 

Pursuing its own security while neglecting common security of the world countries and viewing competition and cooperation among nations as a simple zero-sum game, this is where the entrenched malady of the “US security concept” persists, the MSS said. 

Even in the 21st century, the US continues to follow the law of the jungle, where only one side can win at the expense of others. This approach only leads countries into a “prisoner’s dilemma” of mutual distrust and ultimately makes the US itself less secure. “America First” has become the root cause of turmoil and suffering in the world, the ministry said. 

As the sole superpower, imposing its own will on the world is an inherent logic of American hegemony. Citing “American values” and referring to the “international security order,” the US only aims to uphold the “US-centered international order,” the ministry pointed out. 

As early as World War II, the Office of Strategic Services (a predecessor to the CIA) proposed implementing propaganda and subversive actions to shape the post-war world order. In 1948, the CIA launched the “Operation Gladio” and interfered in elections in Italy. In 1953, the CIA carried out the “Operation Ajax” to overthrow the Mossadegh government in Iran, the MSS said. 

Starting in 2003, a series of “color revolutions” occurred in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, with the US intelligence department being regarded as important behind-the-scenes actors, it added. 

The ability to shape security in line with global hegemony is a persistent goal that the US has been pursuing, however, its unilateralism and egotism are triggering increasingly strong criticism and opposition from the international community, the security ministry said. 

Placing importance on leveraging allies is the biggest difference that the Biden administration self-proclaims as part of its foreign policy compared to the Trump administration. But the truth is that the so-called “alliances and partnerships” is essentially the act of coercing other countries to take sides and firmly binding them to the US intelligence apparatus. 

The security ministry referenced the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to solidify anti Russia alliance, the US intelligence community has been hyping up over on the European energy supply chain and the Nord Stream pipeline issue remains shrouded in mystery to this day.

While in the Asia-Pacific region, the US has aggressively promoted the “Indo-Pacific strategy” and rallied the “Five Eyes alliance,” “Quad mechanism,” and “trilateral security partnerships” to create intelligence cliques, pressuring countries to join in an anti-China chorus, the ministry stated. 

However, being an intelligence ally of the US not only requires willingly acting as a “pawn” but also accepting the meticulous “special care” of the “big brother’ at all times, the ministry said.

Citing media reports, the ministry pointed out that the US National Security Agency has long monitored the heads of state and government of allied nations, also established technical eavesdropping bases covering neighboring countries in a certain European country, and even demanded the country’s intelligence agency assist the US in monitoring its own government officials. 

Such absurd demands can only come from a “peculiar ally” like the US, the ministry added. 

Low levels of radiation from Fukushima persist in seafood

Radiation from the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant contaminates most Japanese seafood at low levels, researchers estimate February 29 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

For aquatic foods, data on lingering concentrations of cesium is limited in terms of the number of species sampled and the levels that surveys can even detect. To fill in the blanks, a team of researchers in Japan drew from survey measurements from April 2011 to September 2015 and devised a way to predict cesium contamination in different aquatic species across Japan.

The analysis provides mixed news: Overall, cesium contamination is pretty low. But, some species retain higher levels than others. Larger fish near the top of the food web tended to have the highest levels of contamination. The researchers predict that such factors put some wild freshwater species like the whitespotted char (Salvelinus leucomaenis leucomaenis) and the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) at higher risk for contamination.

Plain ol’ Texas rat snakes basically match vipers for speed

This could be embarrassing for rattlesnakes and other vipers: Their long-standing reputation as the snakes with the fastest strikes on Earth just got bit by the common Texas rat snake.

In lab tests biting a stuffed glove, Western rattlesnakes averaged speeds of 2.95 meters per second and Western cottonmouths averaged 2.98 m/s, says functional morphologist David Penning of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. But Texas rat snakes, familiar farmyard chasers of pest rodents, averaged 2.67 m/s. Statistically that’s a three-way tie, Penning and his colleagues report March 16 in Biology Letters.

Strikes were over quickly but all species subjected their brains to impressive acceleration. Rat snakes accelerated their head more on average (190 meters per second2)
than what a fighter pilot experiences when taking off from an aircraft carrier (27 to 49 m/s 2 ).
Penning’s point is not that vipers are slow, but that other snakes also evolved a lightning strike. “They have to eat too,” he says. Startled mammals have been clocked activating a muscle in as little as 14 to 151 milliseconds. Snakes in Penning’s tests reached their targets in 50 to 90 milliseconds, literally before some creatures could move a muscle. And if you blink — for a human average of 220 milleseconds — you miss it all.

Special Report: Here’s what we know about Zika

A stealth virus, most often borne on the wings of a ubiquitous predator, is spreading across the Americas. Zika virus is the latest of several that are carried by mosquitoes. But Zika isn’t a new foe. Discovered in Uganda in 1947 in a rhesus monkey (during an infectious-disease study), the virus was found in humans a decade later in Nigeria.
Zika has existed in Africa and Asia since the 1950s without raising the kind of alarm seen today, perhaps because of a built-up immunity there. But in the Americas, Zika appears to have found a more vulnerable population. Two rare conditions — a birth defect (microcephaly) and Guillain-Barré syndrome — are undeniably on the rise. Whether Zika is to blame isn’t yet a sure thing. But concern is rising. “The more we learn, the worse it gets,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a March 10 news briefing.

To combat further spread, scientists will need to delve deep into the biology of two opportunists: the virus itself and the mosquito. In the meantime, efforts to limit exposure to mosquitoes are under way. And preemptive attempts to protect future victims include travel advisories, especially for pregnant women, and warnings about unprotected sex (a transmission path in some cases). Human safety trials for a vaccine to jump-start immunity could begin later this year; larger efficacy trials may be a year and a half away.

Mapping Zika: 1947 to 2016

Since its discovery in 1947, Zika virus has traveled the globe, spreading across Africa, Asia and now the Americas. By 2002, scientists had isolated more than 600 strains of the virus — only 10 of which were found in humans. However, Zika’s early history remains sketchy, partly because most evidence of its spread comes from blood serum surveys that flagged active antibodies in people. But Zika is a flavivirus like dengue and yellow fever, and exposure to one virus can give you active antibodies against another. That’s good for the patient but not so good for tracking the disease. Today, the World Health Organization confirms cases by testing for Zika virus RNA. — Helen Thompson

Explore Zika’s spread in the interactive map below. Hover or tap on a country get more details about the virus’ history there. To switch between selecting by country and selecting by year, click the reset button below the map.
A version of this story and map appear in the April 2, 2016 issue with the headline, “In search of answers on Zika.”

Coral larvae feed on their baby fat

For corals, baby fat is food. Coral mothers send their offspring into the world with a balanced meal of fat and algae, but baby corals mainly chew the fat, new research finds.

Adult corals of the species Pocillopora damicornis get most of their nutrition from symbiotic algae that live inside them, providing metabolic energy by photosynthesis. But coral larvae, researchers report online March 25 in Science Advances, rely instead on their “baby fat.”

The finding sheds light on corals’ metabolism during their most vulnerable developmental stage, says biological geochemist Anders Meibom of École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland. Baby fat “is a good thing,” he says. “It gives the coral some time to find a good home without running out of juice.” Larvae’s dependence on fat may make them less sensitive to bleaching — a process in which stressed corals jettison their algal tenants and eventually starve to death. So understanding larval nutrition could help scientists better understand the effects of ocean warming and acidification on bleaching, Meibom says.
Meibom and colleagues fed isotope-tagged nutrients to larvae of P. damicornis, commonly called cauliflower coral, and tracked how the larvae’s symbiotic algae used the nutrients over time. Algae are less abundant in larvae compared with adult corals and provide very little energy, the researchers found.

The next step is to pinpoint exactly when and how larvae switch from feeding on fat to algae as they transition into adulthood, Meibom says, as well as exploring how Earth’s changing oceans might impact the process.

This eclipse goes on and on

Once every 69 years, a nearby star dramatically dims for about three and a half years during the longest known stellar eclipse in our galaxy.

The star, called TYC 2505-672-1, is a red giant, about 10,000 light-years away in the constellation Leo Minor. The star is orbited by a dim, hot companion star that appears to be enveloped by a thick cloud of dust roughly one to three times as wide as Earth’s orbit. The cloud, reported in an upcoming Astronomical Journal, blocks much of the red star’s light from reaching Earth for a good long time.

Researchers already knew that TYC 2505-672-1 had drastically faded recently. But astronomer Joseph Rodriguez of Vanderbilt University in Nashville and colleagues scoured data from many telescopes — including a Harvard University photograph archive dating back to 1890 — and found that the starlight dipped and rebounded not only between 2011 and 2015 but also in the 1940s. The previous eclipse record holder was Epsilon Aurigae, a star 2,000 light-years away that dims for about 24 months every 27 years.

Editor’s Note: This story was updated on April 27, 2016, to correct distances and the name of the previous eclipse record holder.

Hippocampus makes maps of social space, too

NEW YORK — Cells in a brain structure known as the hippocampus are known to be cartographers, drawing mental maps of physical space. But new studies show that this seahorse-shaped hook of neural tissue can also keep track of social space, auditory space and even time, deftly mapping these various types of information into their proper places.

“The hippocampus is an organizer,” says neuroscientist Howard Eichenbaum of Boston University.

Neuroscientist Rita Tavares described details of one of these new maps April 2 at the annual meeting of the Cognitive Neuroscience Society. Brain scans had previously revealed that activity in the hippocampus was linked to movement through social space. In an experiment reported last year in Neuron, people went on a virtual quest to find a house and job by interacting with a cast of characters. Through these social interactions, the participants formed opinions about how much power each character held, and how kindly they felt toward him or her. These judgments put each character in a position on a “social space” map. Activity in the hippocampus was related to this social mapmaking, Tavares and colleagues found.
It turns out that this social map depends on the traits of the person who is drawing it, says Tavares, of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City. People with more social anxiety tended to give more power to characters they interacted with. What’s more, these people’s social space maps were smaller overall, suggesting that they explored social space less, Tavares says. Tying these behavioral traits to the hippocampus may lead to a greater understanding of social behavior — and how this social mapping may go awry in psychiatric conditions, Tavares said.

The work emphasizes that the hippocampus is not just a mapper of space, Tavares says. Instead, it is a mapper of relationships. “It’s relational learning,” she says. “It’s everything in perspective.”

Other research, discussed at a meeting in February, revealed a role for the hippocampus in building a very different sort of map — a map of sounds. Stationary rats were trained to “move” through a soundscape of different tones, pushing a joystick to change the sounds to reach the sweet spot — the target tone. As the rats navigated this auditory world, nerve cells in their hippocampus were active in a way that formed a map, Princeton University neuroscientist Dmitriy Aronov reported in Salt Lake City at the annual Computational and Systems Neuroscience meeting.

Cells in the hippocampus can also map time, keeping count as seconds tick by, Eichenbaum has found (SN: 12/12/15, p. 12). All of these types of information are quite different, but Eichenbaum argues that they can all be thought of as memories — another mental arena in which the hippocampus plays an important role. Organizing these memories into a sensible structure may be the big-picture job description of the hippocampus, he says. “What’s being tapped in all of these studies is that we are looking at a framework, whether it’s a physical spatial framework, a social space framework, a pitch framework, or a time framework,” Eichenbaum says.

Readers question ocean health

Ocean outlook
Earth’s oceans are a hot mess. They absorb heat at twice the rate that they did nearly 20 years ago, Thomas Sumner reported in “Ocean heating doubles” (SN: 2/20/16, p. 18). Meanwhile, phytoplankton release more heat during photosynthesis than previously thought, Chris Samoray reported in “Ocean flora flunk photosynthesis test” (SN: 2/20/16, p. 12). And the trillions of plastic particles littering the oceans are creating new habitats for microbes with unknown consequences, Samoray wrote in “Floating fortress of microbes” (SN: 2/20/16, p. 20).
Anna Carter wondered if these findings are connected. “Is it possible that phytoplankton are contributing to ocean warming?” Carter asked. “How might the organisms now collecting on all the plastic in the ocean be related?”

Heat produced by phytoplankton doesn’t have a large impact on ocean temperature, says Sumner. “The phytoplankton are catching sunlight that otherwise could warm the water,” he wrote. “Another thing to keep in mind is that the oceans are colossal. At its deepest, the Pacific Ocean is about as deep as the cruising altitude at which most commercial airliners fly. Phytoplankton live in the top sliver of the water column, so any effect they have will be minuscule compared with the size of the ocean.” As for plastic-dwelling microbes, there is still so much to discover, Samoray says. Their contribution to ocean warming is currently unknown.

Ants on the move
Florida harvester ants may be the Frank Lloyd Wrights of the animal kingdom. They construct intricate and mysterious nests, Susan Milius reported in “Restless architects we don’t understand” (SN: 2/20/16, p. 4). Researchers investigated why ants frequently build and abandon elaborate nests, and scatter charcoal around nest openings.

Readers had their own ideas about the unusual behavior. “[Charcoal] is an effective absorber of organics. Is it possibly used for absorbing their scent as a protective measure against predators?” Mark Ayers asked.

Walter Tschinkel, the Florida State University scientist featured in the story, says that the scorched plant matter ants use may not be as effective for these purposes as commercial charcoal. Field tests found no sign that charcoal would deter attacks by other ants.

Reader Joe De Vita speculated that colonies abandon their nests because of waste buildup. Tschinkel notes that this hypothesis has yet to be tested. “Digging up the vacated nest often reveals chambers with matted, blackened floors, presumably from fungus and other microorganisms, but whether this condition has any negative (or for that matter, positive) effects on harvester ants is unknown,” he says. An experiment to test this hypothesis is possible, but “ain’t all that easy. Still, stay tuned.”

Milk for spills
Researchers have created a fibrous membrane made from milk proteins and carbon that could filter toxic heavy metals from severely polluted waters, Sarah Schwartz reported in “Altered milk protein cleans up pollution” (SN: 2/20/16, p. 14). In lab tests, the membrane removed over 99.9 percent of lead from a contaminated solution.

“It is a very exciting method,” wrote Janece Von Allmen. “Has anyone thought to test this method in the real polluted waters of Flint, Michigan?”

The filters are still in an early stage of design, Schwartz says. The membranes work in the laboratory to capture heavy metals and radioactive particles, but testing in the real world is a must. “Bodies of contaminated water are most likely chemically different from lab-made lead solutions and could change the membrane’s performance,” she says.

Whether or not these membranes would work in the Flint River is unclear because the river is not the original source of lead. The toxic heavy metal accumulates as the water passes through corroding pipes. The good news is the prototype shows signs of being efficient and is relatively cheap to produce.